
Right now squirrels across the country are collecting up nuts getting ready for winter, food that they hope will feed them into next year. We as a country I’ve had a complicated year with Coronavirus and the vast social issues that has created and there are many people now who are receiving help from the government and all of this needs to be paid for. Many of us have some money squirrelled away for many of us that amount might be reducing, And it may be with some concern that we think about what tax rises there might be in store for us.
My aim here is to collect together the announcements that have been made, and some thoughts about what we might be expecting when Rishi Sunak next stands up for his autumn budget, and I will update this as we get closer to the budget. As at the date of writing the budget date has not yet been announced.
Income Tax
It is very unlikely that the rate of income tax will change in the short to medium term. Indeed with the current Labour opposition there is little pressure on the government here.
It is possible that a hypothecated increase in national insurance contributions might be introduced, but this would probably be unpopular and would take money away from the very people who need to be spending it right now.
Corporation Tax
The government have let it be known that corporation taxes might float up to somewhere around 24% almost returning to the rate of 26% at which they stood when the Conservative government came to power. Labour are not currently putting any pressure on corporation tax rates.
It is very possible that corporation taxes will be restructured to take away some of the advantages to small companies of using dividends to reduce national insurance contributions. We have been waiting a long time for such changes, and this may be as simple as applying national insurance to dividends paid to directors of close companies for example.
Business reliefs
There is increasing speculation that that might be tax relief for business investment, and this may involve another yo of the capital allowances yo-yo. The annual investment allowance is currently at £1 million under a temporary measure which expires in December 2020. It might be that this gets prolonged a little bit longer.
Alternatively the Chancellor may look at shareholding beliefs such as extending the Enterprise Investment Scheme or the Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme. Both of these beliefs are aimed at investors who are investing monies into new or relatively new companies. In the situation where we as a country need investment into new companies and investors have cash in their bank accounts it would seem sensible to allow new businesses to bubble up using such a relief. Having said that the seed enterprise investment scheme is already very attractive and a little bit of tweaking to take away some of the complications and bear traps involved in this relief might be more rewarding.
Capital Taxes
There is already a review into capital gains tax which has been referred elsewhere in this page. There is current speculation that the rate of capital gains tax might be increased up to income tax rates, but this might be seen to break with an important underlying philosophy of capital gains tax that it should not tax inflationary gains. It is for this reason that in the history of capital gains tax there have been various mechanisms to relieve the inflationary gains, starting with an indexation allowance moving onto a type of relief and currently a simple rough halving of the rate. To my mind it seems fair that capital gains tax rate is half the rate of income tax if that is seen as a simplified relief for installation of the gains.
Looking more broadly, the reason we have to have a capital gains tax is that if there was not such a tax, wealthy individuals who are able to control cash flows, might arrange that all of their ‘income’ will take the nature of capital and they would thus escape taxes. There is a long history of anti-avoidance legislation targeted at treating such short-term gains as income and it may be that this is a more fertile ground for short-term capital gains. This might lead to a general rule introduced which says there are short-term capital gain, safer assets held for less than two years, might be just added in as income.
Inheritance tax is constantly under review and this might be fairly fertile ground for changes. The rate of inheritance tax at 40% for death transfers or 20% for lifetime transfers is analogous to the rate of income tax at a basic rate (20%) or the higher rate (40%).
With rules to tax non-UK domiciled individuals on UK residential property (even when held by a non UK company) for both inheritance tax and capital gains tax, it is getting more difficult to avoid inheritance taxes on property. It would not be very surprising to see the non-domicile walls swept away completely to put all individuals on an equal footing here. It would then be the case that a non-resident individual might simply be taxed on assets in the UK without the complications that we have now. It is often the complications that allow for cracks through which tax can leak.
Taking away the tax-free probate uplift on property where not subject to inheritance tax would create a nice tax take for the country. It is clearly right and proper that if the value of an asset has been subject to inheritance tax that same value should then be the base cost for a future disposal. If however the asset was exempt in the estate, by reason of nil rate band business property relief or agricultural relief for example, then it seems fair to both future capital gains on the original cost without that probate value uplift.
The idea of an annual wealth tax has been mooted, but I do not see an appetite for this at the moment. To me, a new tax on capital would be politically unacceptable to the Conservative party at this moment in time. However we will need to wait and see…
VAT
As we move away from Europe so we will be unshackled from the EU is VAT rules. This gives the Chancellor some scope for adjusting VAT rates or the commodities and services on which VAT is charged.